The new year started with moderate results in most markets. Interest rates were slightly higher across almost all maturities, and apart from emerging markets, investors were positive on equities. At the beginning of the month American inflation figures threatened to throw a spanner in the works. These came out higher than expected and thus the chance of a quick interest rate cut by central banks was considerably reduced. lower. The U.S. dollar benefited, gaining about 2% against the euro. Across the board, commodity prices picked up over 2%. Oil became more expensive again (partly due to tensions in the Middle East), however, the price of gas became almost 15% cheaper.
Shares
January saw a divided picture in equity markets. The MSCI All Countries World Index (developed + emerging markets combined; measured in euros) achieved a return of +2.3%. However, developed markets (+2.9%) had a much better start to the year than emerging markets (-3.0%). Within developed markets, Japan (+6.4%) was the best performing region. North America (+3.1%) and Europe (+1.6%) also posted gains. Pacific excluding Japan (-1.8%) had to give up some ground, caused by losses in the Hong Kong market. The latter is linked to China (-9.1%), which also pulled the emerging markets index down with it. The Asia (-3.6%) and Latin America (-3.2%) regions also showed a minus for the month. EMEA was the exception with a modest plus (+0.7%). Styles growth stocks (+3.0%) significantly outperformed style value stocks (+1.6%).
Bonds
The rise in interest rates was slightly larger in Europe than in the US. The 10-year rate on German government bonds rose 0.14% in January to a level of 2.17%. For Dutch government bonds with the same maturity, the increase was 0.11% (to 2.45%). In the U.S., the increase was limited to 0.03% (to 3.91%). Risk premiums rose slightly for almost all categories in January. For emerging market government bonds, the premium increased by 0.18% to 4.02%. Less risky corporate bonds saw a decline of 0.06% (to 1.30%), and more risky corporate bonds saw an increase of 0.06% (to 3.90%).